sbet Fire danger in LA gives way to mudslides, flooding concerns

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Workers secure a net to prevent mudslides over the burned side of a mansion in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Friday, Jan. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

LOS ANGELES – A dramatic weather shift highlighted by cooler temperatures and the promise of weekend rain greeted Southern California Friday, as crews in Pacific Palisades, Altadena and other recent burn areas braced for the possibility of debris flows when the precipitation begins.

Red flag warnings of high fire danger expired Friday for the Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, the San Gabriel Mountains, the 5 and 14 Freeway corridors, the Santa Clarita and San Fernando valleys, the Malibu Coast, Calabasas and Agoura Hills.

In a dramatic change, the National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning that will be in place from Saturday to Monday for the eastern San Gabriel Mountains, and a winter weather advisory during the same hours in the Golden State (5) Freeway corridor in the northern reaches of the county.

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Forecasters warned that “heavy snow” is expected in the eastern San Gabriels, possibly accumulating up to 14 inches in some areas, although only an inch or less is anticipated along the Grapevine stretch of the 5 Freeway.

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For the rest of the area, rain is expected to arrive Saturday night or early Sunday, with only light showers anticipated through Sunday morning.

But “chances for higher rain rates will be increasing Sunday afternoon into Monday,” according to the NWS.

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The exact amount of rain expected has been in flux, with some forecasts initially indicating between a quarter- and half-inch, but others calling for slightly more. Thunderstorms are also possible with the system.

As of Friday, forecasters said the storm system was lingering farther offshore than originally expected, which could lead to higher rain amounts and elevated rainfall rates.

Comments from top Federal Reserve officials suggesting they would like to see a slower pace of rate cuts tempered hopes for another bumper cut at the bank’s next meeting, while Middle East worries pushed gold to a new record.

“L.A. County will likely see three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain with the notable exception of the San Gabriel foothills where 1 to 2 inches — locally 2.5 inches — of rain now looks likely,” according to the NWS.

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“One important thing about this system is that the rain will be spread out over a 36-hour period and peak rain rates are generally expected to be a quarter inch per hour, and for much of the time a tenth of an inch per hour or less. These light rain rates will be very beneficial to the fire weather danger while also remaining under the intensity needed to cause debris flows in the recent fire areas.”

Despite that prediction, the NWS still issued a flood watch that will be in effect Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for the Santa Clarita Valley, Malibu Coast, Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, San Gabriel Mountains, San Gabriel Valley and the Antelope Valley (14) Freeway corridor.

Local authorities aren’t taking any chances.

Mark Pestrella, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, said this week crews were preparing for the potential rain, deploying K-rails, sandbags and other devices “to manage sediment and debris.” In the Eaton Fire area, crews were using Santa Anita racetrack as a staging area for supplies, and on the west side near the Palisades Fire, Santa Monica Airport was being used as a base of operations.

“Currently, our crews are clearing debris from streets, cleaning and preparing debris basins, deploying sandbags and other systems to keep runoff with ash and other burn debris from entering the storm drain system,” he said.

“Public Works is also working with the state to coordinate the deployment of K-rail in burn areas.”

Pestrella urged burn-area residents who have returned to their homes to plan to stay indoors during the storm event, saying that while officials do not expect the rain to cause damaging flows that would mandate evacuations, sediment and debris will still likely flow into streets.

“This is not expected to be a tremendous amount of debris, but enough to actually cause transportation problems for our first responders that may be trying to travel,” he said. “I’d like to reserve those streets for our first responders.”

He said people who live in homes that back up to recently burned hillside areas can have county crews come to their homes and inspect their properties to see if any mitigation efforts are needed to protect against possible landslides.

But he warned: “If … there is a slope behind your home that is burned and it’s maybe 20 feet or more in height, and it is adjacent to the property in any direction, your best bet is not to be in that home when it rains.”

The county Department of Public Works is the lead agency coordinating fire-debris-removal efforts following the Palisades and Eaton blazes, in conjunction with the US Environmental Protection Agency — which is handling the first-phase removal of hazardous wastes — and the Army Corps of Engineers, which will oversee physical debris removal.

Officials with those agencies noted that preliminary work on removal has begun, but mainly with assessments and establishing temporary storage areas for debris being removed.The rain will arrive as firefighters continue to make progress encircling major wildfires that have struck the region in recent weeks.

The Hughes Fire near Castaic Lake burned more than 10,000 acres Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but it was 56 perent contained as of Friday.

As of Friday, the 14,021-acre Eaton Fire was 95 percent contained, and the 23,448-acre Palisades Fire 77 percent, according to Cal Fire.

The fires have thus far claimed 28 lives — 11 in the Palisades Fire area and 17 in the Eaton area, according to the county medical examiner.

Evacuation orders have been lifted for dozens of areas in both the Palisades and Eaton fire areas, though some homes were still without electricity and/or gas service due to safety shutoffs. A curfew remains in effect nightly from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. in the mandatory evacuation areas, with only firefighters, law enforcement and utility workers allowed in those zones.

The causes of the Eaton and Palisades fires remain under investigation. They erupted on Jan. 7 as the area was under a red flag warning for critical fire danger due to a historic wind event that saw gusts of 80 mph.

More than 16,000 structures were destroyed in the two fires, according to Cal Fire.

By the time all the damage is assessed, the fires are expected to constitute the costliest natural disaster in US history. (CNS)

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